Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020.
Identifieur interne : 000470 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000469; suivant : 000471Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Coronavirus Disease in Japan, 2020.
Auteurs : Toshikazu Kuniya [Japon]Source :
- Journal of clinical medicine [ 2077-0383 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is R 0 = 2 . 6 ( 95 % CI, 2 . 4 - 2 . 8 ) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.
DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030789
PubMed: 32183172
Affiliations:
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